@Article{M-10518,
AUTHOR = {Naik, Yogita Sudhakar},
TITLE = {Climate-Driven Transmission Dynamics of Dengue and Malaria: A Compartmental Modelling Framework Incorporating Temperature, Rainfall, and Humidity},
JOURNAL = {Scientific Research Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology},
VOLUME = {4},
YEAR = {2026},
NUMBER = {1},
ARTICLE-NUMBER = {M-10518},
URL = {https://isrdo.org/journal/SRJSET/currentissue/climate-driven-transmission-dynamics-of-dengue-and-malaria-a-compartmental-modelling-framework-incorporating-temperature-rainfall-and-humidity},
ISSN = {2584-0584},
ABSTRACT = {Climate change is altering the epidemiological landscape of vector-borne diseases, with dengue fever and malaria presenting particular challenges for public health systems in tropical and subtropical regions. This study develops and analyses a climate-sensitive compartmental model based on a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that incorporates temperature, rainfall, and humidity as dynamic inputs governing mosquito population biology and disease transmission. The basic reproduction number (R₀) is derived analytically, and local stability conditions for both the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE) are established. Numerical simulations conducted over a three-year horizon under baseline and perturbed climate scenarios reveal that temperature is the dominant driver of outbreak intensity (PRCC = 0.75), with a +2°C anomaly sufficient to push R₀ above unity and elevate outbreak probability beyond 80% in high-density urban settings. Dengue transmission peaks at 37.5°C with 120–140 mm monthly rainfall, while malaria transmission is optimal at 25°C with relative humidity exceeding 70%. These findings quantify critical climatic thresholds and underscore the need to integrate climate projections into epidemiological early-warning systems and adaptive public health policy.},
DOI = {}
}