<?xml version="1.0"?>
<article xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" noNamespaceSchemaLocation="http://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.1/xsd/JATS-journalpublishing1-mathml3.xsd" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.1" lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">isrdo-SRJSET</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">isrdo-SRJSET</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">isrdo-SRJSET</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Scientific Research Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology</journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher" pub-type="epub">SRJSET</abbrev-journal-title></journal-title-group><issn>2584-0584</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ISRDO</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Gujarat,India</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">M-10518</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi"/><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="categories"><subject>Mathematics</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Climate-Driven Transmission Dynamics of Dengue and Malaria: A Compartmental Modelling Framework Incorporating Temperature, Rainfall, and Humidity</article-title></title-group><contrib-group content-type="authors"><contrib id="871" contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><given-names>Yogita Sudhakar Naik</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1">1</xref><aff id="aff-1"><label>0</label><institution>Ghanshyamdas Saraf College of Arts and Commerce</institution><country>India</country></aff></contrib></contrib-group><contrib-group content-type="editors"><contrib contrib-type="editor"/></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="epub" data-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2026-07-01"><day>01</day><month>07</month><year iso-8601-date="2">2026</year></pub-date><volume>4</volume><elocation-id>V4-I1-2026</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2026-06-20"><day>20</day><month>06</month><year iso-8601-date="2026">2026</year></date><date date-type="revised" iso-8601-date="2026-06-20"><day>20</day><month>06</month><year iso-8601-date="2026"/></date><date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2026-06-20"><day>20</day><month>06</month><year iso-8601-date="2026"/></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>&#xA9;2026 Yogita Sudhakar Naik Year Corresponding Author</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Yogita Sudhakar Naik</copyright-holder><license href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (ISRDO) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri href="https://isrdo.org/journal/SRJSET/currentissue/climate-driven-transmission-dynamics-of-dengue-and-malaria-a-compartmental-modelling-framework-incorporating-temperature-rainfall-and-humidity"/><abstract><p>Climate change is altering the epidemiological landscape of vector-borne diseases, with dengue fever and malaria presenting particular challenges for public health systems in tropical and subtropical regions. This study develops and analyses a climate-sensitive compartmental model based on a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that incorporates temperature, rainfall, and humidity as dynamic inputs governing mosquito population biology and disease transmission. The basic reproduction number (R&#x2080;) is derived analytically, and local stability conditions for both the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE) are established. Numerical simulations conducted over a three-year horizon under baseline and perturbed climate scenarios reveal that temperature is the dominant driver of outbreak intensity (PRCC = 0.75), with a +2&#xB0;C anomaly sufficient to push R&#x2080; above unity and elevate outbreak probability beyond 80% in high-density urban settings. Dengue transmission peaks at 37.5&#xB0;C with 120&#x2013;140 mm monthly rainfall, while malaria transmission is optimal at 25&#xB0;C with relative humidity exceeding 70%. These findings quantify critical climatic thresholds and underscore the need to integrate climate projections into epidemiological early-warning systems and adaptive public health policy.</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="author"><kwd>climate change</kwd><kwd> vector-borne diseases</kwd><kwd> dengue fever</kwd><kwd> malaria</kwd><kwd> compartmental ODE model</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement>This study did not receive specific financial support from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or non-profit sectors.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><sec sec-type="data-availability"><title>Data Availability</title><p>Not applicable</p></sec><sec sec-type="COI-statement"><title>Conflicts of Interest</title><p>The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.</p></sec><sec sec-type="author-contributions"><title>Authors&#x2019; Contributions</title><p>The author confirms sole responsibility for all stages of the study, including design, data collection, analysis, and manuscript writing.</p></sec><sec sec-type="funding-statement"><title>Funding Statement</title><p>This study did not receive specific financial support from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or non-profit sectors.</p></sec><sec sec-type="software-information"><title>software-information</title><p>Not applicable</p></sec><ack><title>Acknowledgments</title><p>I appreciate the assistance and expertise provided by everyone involved in this research and manuscript, and the valuable comments from peer reviewers.</p></ack><ref-list content-type="authoryear"><ref id="1"><label>1</label><element-citation publication-type="journal"><p>-</p></element-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>
